The world of crisis readiness has always involved anticipating what could go wrong. This tends to make crisis communicators feel like they show up to every planning session bringing doom and gloom.
But more than that, it’s about identifying potential risks, so that leadership understands that the communications team is well prepared to respond when necessary. Scenario planning is a strategic exercise that must be part of ensuring an organization is ready when a crisis strikes.
This is especially true in change management, when leaders know an event is approaching that could threaten reputation or stakeholder trust should the change escalate to crisis levels. Leaders and communications teams understand the opportunity to be as prepared as possible for these scenarios by brainstorming, identifying and fully vetting the highest-likelihood and highest-impact scenarios and then creating response plans that mitigate the potential impact of the priority scenarios.
While every major organizational change is different, in today’s world, there are four scenarios that should always make the list.
Information leaks
AI-generated “fakes”
Political or opinion leader engagement
Connection to larger socio-political issues
1. Leaked information
Benjamin Franklin once said, “Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead.” Whether locked up in NDAs or closely held within your executive leadership, the nature of change management requires information sharing across an organization and engaging others to support the change.
And when information moves, leaks are likely to follow. Hitting forward is easy. Human nature is to spill the beans and be the first to share. Social media and online channels have only increased the likelihood that information will spread quickly. And sometimes, it’s purely an accident.
But expecting a leak is wise, and knowing how to respond is essential. Leaks are often inaccurate or reflect only part of the change. The message won’t match your planned narrative. What will you say to the media, employees or community leaders? Will you address the information head-on or let the information leak create your narrative? How will it affect your change timeline? Is silence the best (or only) option?
2. AI fakes
Communicators and leaders alike are paying close attention to the rise of bot posts, fake videos and online “news” with no basis in reality. Fear about being the victim of AI fakes is real — especially if a leader’s voice, image or likeness is available online. The fear is heightened by the reality that it is nearly impossible to AI-fake-proof your communication.
Like sports, the best defense is a good offense. Have AI detection tools and monitoring at the ready so your crisis team is alerted in real time. Train your team to identify potential online fakes. Plan specific response messaging for this scenario.
Should your organization find itself in an AI-created crisis during change, be ready to swiftly engage and address it. Rely on a steady stream of owned and verified channels to ensure accurate information is distributed and maintain the flow of authentic messaging on a parallel path to discrediting the AI fakes. Task your social media monitoring team to report the matter to the top social, news and digital platforms and to request the removal of the posts.
3. Political involvement
In today’s political climate, elected officials are looking for ways to be relevant, and nothing is better than an organization’s decision or action that gives their voice a fresh angle. Whether the change is national in scale or local, someone in office or running for office may see it as a platform for political gain. In many cases, organizations now must bring government relations and lobbying teams to the table early to prepare for change.
Plan now for how you will respond if a one-off post on X or a line in a speech brings your organization front and center in the political realm. How will you monitor the reach and impact of the post? Will your company engage directly? Online? Has your organization built the relationships needed to minimize the impact of the “bully pulpit” of elected leaders?
4. Connection to socio-political issues
The world is disrupted and divided, and this environment creates the potential to leverage organizational change as a “symbol” of a larger, more divisive issue. But there are some keys to minimizing this impact on change management and crisis.
The first is good scenario planning and anticipatory issues management. Consider the sectors within which your organization works or the customers you serve. Government? Technology? Community engagement? Social services? Finance and the economy? Health care? Any of these, and many others, can become part of a larger narrative or used as a “tool of blame.”
Examples of larger issues that can be connected to organizations undergoing change include immigration and eligibility to work, rising health care costs, government spending, politics or perceived inequality among different races or ethnicities. For example, a company discontinuing production of a particular drug could easily become part of a broader narrative around health care charges, FDA regulation, tariffs, labor or manufacturing costs.
While not every crisis or change comes with this consideration, it is sometimes surprising how a seemingly innocuous area of business can be inexplicably tied to something in the national conversation. Employees or other stakeholders with “keyboard courage” may take to their smartphones to suggest that an organization’s decision has a larger, hidden agenda. Or that the change was forced by an unseen political perspective.
Benchmarking against other organizations that have gone through similar changes to see where these issues have occurred, monitoring news cycles for competitor stories and remaining aware of larger policy discussions in your industry can inform advance scenario planning for a change.
For those leading change management projects, as well as leaders and communicators responsible for building readiness within the organization, a strong understanding of what, when and how things could take a turn for the worse is critically important. Reframing the introduction of these scenarios is less about doom and gloom and more about a realistic, effective review of the world around us. Preparedness for what could go wrong — even if it doesn’t happen — is among the most valuable tools leaders can bring to change management and crisis readiness.
Opinions expressed by SmartBrief contributors are their own.
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