Thumma points to a consolidation that has been underway for more than a century but has accelerated in recent years. Larger churches offer more programming, more flexible worship times and more intentional systems for welcoming newcomers. Many also stayed open longer during the pandemic. The data shows that congregations that did not close had a median attendance growth rate of 9 percent, compared to a 4 percent decline for congregations that suspended in-person worship.
McConnell sees the same trend in his research. When adults who have attended more than one church as an adult are asked to describe their church movement, they tend to report migrating toward a larger congregation, often without having set out to do so.
“It raises a lot of questions around being able to pay clergy, having a viable community, having enough people to minister to each other in the different ways a local congregation normally does,” McConnell said.
Both researchers point to something beyond the numbers, though, as perhaps the most significant development. Across traditions and sizes, congregations are reporting a renewed sense of purpose and optimism, an energy that had been largely absent for years, they said.
Thumma saw it firsthand the same week the report was released, at a gathering of younger clergy in New England, which is among the U.S. regions to have experienced the greatest declines in church attendance. One by one, pastors from small, struggling churches described an upbeat atmosphere in their congregations.
“I’m thinking, ‘Did they read our report?’” Thumma said. “It was great confirmation that what we saw in the data was actually playing out.”
For McConnell, that shift in attitude is directly connected to something churches can control: the intentional work of community building, outreach and clearly communicating why gathering together matters.
“After COVID, I think we were shocked at how much work it is,” he said. “But as churches did the work of explaining and sharing and getting back into serving their community, those elements have brought people back together.”
Thumma, who has spent 25 years tracking the health of American congregations, said that what stays with him most isn’t the attendance figure. It’s the hope.
“The thing that has bothered me for a couple of decades is this story of ‘Woe is us. We’re the chosen few, and we’re getting fewer each year,’” he said. “To see that sense of hope, that energy — no matter what level they’re at — that they can do more. That has been absent from a lot of churches. To see that shift is a very positive thing.”
